| year/category | books | "music" (cd probably, not mp3) | mp3 | movies | games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | $3M = 5% commission on $63M = 10% of $630M online market sales | $1M = 5% commission on $19M = 10% of $187M 1998 online market sales | ||||
| 2003 | $15M = 5% commission on $300M = 10% of $3002M online market sales | $12M = 5% commission on $250M = 10% of $2495M 2003 online market sales |
70% of market
| year/category | books | "music" (cd probably, not mp3) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | $20M = 5% commission on $441M = 70% of $630M online market sales | $7M = 5% commission on $131M = 70% of $187M 1998 online market sales | |
| 2003 | $100M = 5% commission on $2100M = 70% of $3002M online market sales | $85M = 5% commission on $1747M = 10% of $2495M 2003 online market sales |
> > Delivering Bits and Atoms. > > > > The delivery of products as bits rather than as atoms is set to > explode, according to Forrester Research in the Feb. 14 NUA Internet > Surveys, rising to $2.9 billion in 2004, or 22% of products purchased > online (up from 3% today). Of course many products, like shoes and > wine, aren't (yet) candidates for instant delivery, and so music is > slated to be the forerunner digitally-delivered product, with online > delivery spectacularly rising from 1999's $1 million, to $1 billion by > 2004 (fully one quarter of all music purchased online.) > > Software as well will increasingly eschew the brightly-colored box for > inventory-less and instantly gratifying electronic delivery, growing > from today's $87 million, to $1.3 billion, or 40% of software sold > online. > > Books too will capitalize on their easy conversion to bits, with 13% of > all online book purchases, or $426 million, being digitally delivered > by 2004. > > Additionally, IDC predicts that digitally delivered postage will take > off this year, growing from $8.2 million since it was introduced in > August, to $300 million (3% of all small business first class postage) > by the end of this year, rising to $600 million by the close of 2001. > (http://206.35.113.28:8080/Data/Consumer/content/CSB020200PR.htm) > > Now if they could just digitally deliver that last-minute ingredient I > need to finish cooking dinner... > > But since the transporter is still (mostly) beyond the horizon, my jar > of capers, and much of the other atom-based merchandise that we are > increasingly ordering online, still does have to be physically > delivered to our homes. (Worldwide Business-to-Consumer (B2C) > Ecommerce is expected to hit $46 billion this year, rising to $105 > billion by 2002, according to Banc of America Securities - > http://www.zdii.com/industry_list.asp?mode=news&doc_id=PR20000204SFF001 > E&pic=Y&ticker=). And Senior Analyst Tom Courtney believes that, "these > numbers, particularly in the U.S., are conservative." > > FedEx, the company that foresaw the need for overnight delivery while > others laughed, has now recognized that there are some differences in > the delivery services that B2C Ecommerce requires. (Perhaps one of > their employees had to play tag with a delivery because they weren't > home to accept it, yet the delivery service would only deliver while > they were at work. Catch-22.) Well, that's about to change, according > to the Jan. 19 InternetWeek > (http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB20000119S0017). > > It seems that a new Ecommerce-oriented service, FedEx Home Delivery, is > about to be launched next month in 38 cities, growing to cover 98% of > all U.S. homes within four years. The service will be less expensive > than traditional business-oriented FedEx delivery, and will, among > other consumer-friendly attributes, allow you to specify when you'd > like delivery, including during the evening. > > One more example of the virtual world, changing the real... >
"Collaborative filtering: We have developed tools for predicting a user’s preferences (e.g., the products, movies, TV shows, and books he or she likes) given information about the user such as other preferences they have and demographics. Examples include intelligent cross sell for Commerce Server, story recommender for MSNBC, and document finder for PKM."
> * Venture Numbers -- $20 billion is a rather large number, yet that's > what Internet companies have raised during 1999 (which represents > half of all venture capital investments that year). This level of > investment is up five times from the amount invested the year > before, according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers in the Feb. 14 > Investor's Business Daily and NewsScan Daily. >All we need is $75k. I heard anecdotally that $200M is the going rate for an ipo-bound internet startup.
This press release (http://www.productopia.com/corp/press_release/0,2337,1-0-6,00.html) quotes some venture capital:
Investors in Productopia include @Ventures, the affiliated venture capital arm of CMGI; Amicus Investments; Angel Investors LLC, the Internet investment fund started by Ron Conway; Arba Seed Investment Group; Osprey Ventures; Ben Rosen, Chairman of Compaq; Jonathan Bulkeley, CEO of Barnes and Noble.com; and Sunil Paul, CEO of BrightLight Technologies.
America Online said the MapQuest acquisition would bolster Digital City, a series of AOL online metropolitan information guides, and **MovieFone**, the top U.S. movie listing guide and ticketing service that was recently acquired by AOL last May.(emphasis mine, of course). The MovieFone service is interesting and it seems at least related.
John Kumpf
Alpha Verification Tools
Compaq Computer Corporation / Formerly DIGITAL
email: john@kumpf.org
kumpf@segsrv.hlo.dec.com
alternate: john.kumpf@compaq.com
internal vms: ricks::kumpf
phone: 908.431.0682